CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2017-07-14T01:36:00-CME-001)

Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2017 Jul 14 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels this period.  Region 2665
(S06W36, Dhi/beta) produced a long-duration M2/1n flare at 14/0209 UTC
which was accompanied by several low-level radio bursts and Type-IV
radio sweeps.  An associated asymmetric halo CME was observed in LASCO
C2 coronagraph imagery beginning at 14/0125 UTC, and initial analysis of
this event suggests arrival late on 16 Jul.
 
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for
additional M-class flare activity over the next three days (14-16 Jul).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit became
enhanced following the M2 flare and exceeded the S1 (Minor) solar
radiation storm threshold at 14/0900 UTC.  The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux reached a peak of 12 pfu at 14/1025 UTC.  The greater than 2
MeV electron flux reached moderate levels this period.
    
.Forecast...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to continue above the S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm threshold through
early on day two (14-15 Jul).  Proton flux levels are expected to
decrease below the S1 threshold by midday on day two through day three
(16 Jul), but there is a chance for an additional enhancement as Region
2665 approaches the west limb.  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is
expected to continue at moderate levels throughout the forecast period
(14-16 Jul).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were at background levels under a nominal solar
wind regime.  Solar wind speeds decreased from initial values of around
420 km/s to end-of-period values near 350-360 km/s.  Total field
strength values ranged between 1-3 nT and Bz hovered around 0 nT through
most of the period.  The phi angle was steady in a positive (away) solar
sector orientation throughout the period.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to become slightly enhanced late on
day one through day three (14-16 Jul) due to the influence of a negative
polarity CH HSS becomes.  An additional, more pronounced, solar wind
enhancement is expected late on day three (16 Jul) due to continued CH
HSS influence combined with the anticipated arrival of the asymmetric
halo CME from 14 Jul.
 
Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on
day one (14 Jul) followed by unsettled to active levels on day two (15
Jul) due to the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS.  The
anticipated arrival of the 14 Jul CME combined with continued CH HSS
influence is expected to cause periods of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm
conditions with G2 (Moderate) storm levels likely.

Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2017 Jul 14 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 14-Jul 16 2017 is 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 14-Jul 16 2017

            Jul 14     Jul 15     Jul 16
00-03UT        1          4          3     
03-06UT        1          4          3     
06-09UT        1          3          2     
09-12UT        1          3          2     
12-15UT        1          3          2     
15-18UT        2          3          5 (G1)
18-21UT        2          3          6 (G2)
21-00UT        3          3          6 (G2)

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